The Premier League just keeps giving and giving this season. From Spurs potentially monumental collapse, to Arsenals final push to the promise land, we can’t take our eyes away. So cancel the strawberry picking plans with the fam and grab that old tv in the garage, or spare laptop and start running a couple screens simultaneously.
 
You’re not going to want to miss a moment of action this weekend.


-Gabe

In this edition

• Fixtures

• Extra Slice

Matchweek 33 Fixtures

Saturday, April 18

🐝 Brentford vs 🏠 Fulham — 4:30 AM — USA

🦉 Leeds vs 🐺 Wolves — 7:00 AM — Peacock

⚫️ Newcastle vs 🍒 Bournemouth — 7:00 AM — USA

🐓 Tottenham vs 🐧 Brighton — 9:30 AM — USA
I wanted to say something about this game but we ran out of space with the other matches. So all I’ll say is (cue Trump voice and hands) “HUGE match, the biggest, some would say they’ve seen bigger, but I say not like this you haven’t”.

🦁 Chelsea vs 🟥 Manchester United — 12:00 PM — NBC
Everyone’s talking about City Arsenal this weekend but don’t forget the other former league contenders from years past. While both teams are clearly out of the title race, the Champions League battle is raging with United, Villa, Liverpool and Chelsea are all scrapping for what is now confirmed to be five available spots.

All I’m going to say is that Liam Rosenior is lucky the Abramovich era has ended, his side have lost their last three Premier League games without scoring a single goal (City beat them 3-0, Everton beat them 3-0, Newcastle beat them 1-0) and their last league win was a 4-1 at Villa Park back in early March. Chelsea coaches have been fired for far less in the past. For context, Chelsea have only lost four straight once this century, and they haven't lost four in a row without scoring since February 1998. The good news is Enzo Fernández returns from suspension, which matters enormously as the guy leads the entire Premier League in defensive line-breaking passes and has created more chances than anyone else at the club this season.

United aren't really coming in on their high horse either. They got beat 2-1 by lowly Leeds on Monday 😬 after Lisandro Martínez got a straight red for pulling Dominic Calvert-Lewin's hair (truly an even lower low), and now head into Saturday missing Martínez (suspended), De Ligt (injured), Maguire (suspended), and potentially Yoro too. That is a lot of defenders to lose before a road game. The silver lining for Carrick is that United haven't lost back-to-back league games all season (one of only two teams alongside Arsenal who can say that).

Chelsea have historically been very tough to beat at home in this fixture, losing just once in their last 12 against United at the Bridge. This fixture has produced more score draws than any other in Premier League history so expect goals, and with both defenses looking shaky right now, hopefully we will see a fun open game.

Sunday, April 19

⭕ Aston Villa vs 🐈‍⬛ Sunderland — 6:00 AM — USA

🟦 Everton vs 🔴 Liverpool — 6:00 AM — Peacock
Sunday's Merseyside derby is the first ever meeting between these two sides at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton's new home.

The timing isn't bad for them either. Everton come in with three wins from their last five league games, sitting eighth and very much in the hunt for European football. Liverpool, meanwhile, have just been knocked out of the Champions League by PSG, and have lost four of their last five in all competitions by an aggregate of 10-1. They did beat Fulham 2-0 last week, but the vibes around Anfield are not great. Worth noting: if Liverpool lose on Sunday, they hit double figures for league defeats (the most by a reigning Premier League champion since Leicester lost 18 games in 2016-17). That's a brutal stat for a team that won the title last May.

🌲 Nottingham Forest vs 🟣 Burnley — 6:00 AM — USA

🌙 Manchester City vs 🔫 Arsenal — 8:30 AM — USA
Now we come to the pièce de résistance with the top two teams meeting in a game that could make or break Arsenals title push. Arsenal head into the game six points clear at the top, and a win would basically end the title conversation for most people. The only problem is…. well…. their form….. it’s not very good. They've lost three straight domestic games; the EFL Cup final to City, the FA Cup to Championship side Southampton (still not over it), and then last weekend's gut-punch 2-1 home loss to Bournemouth. Meanwhile City went to Stamford Bridge and won 3-0 like it was nothing. The gap that felt comfortable two weeks ago is suddenly feeling a little more like a ledge

The data does not make for comfortable reading if you're an Arsenal fan. April is City's best month under Guardiola; 2.51 points per game, 79.5% win rate. It’s also Arsenal's worst month under Arteta (1.54 PPG, 42.3% win rate). You can't make that up. City are also unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League home games against Arsenal, and the Gunners are arriving with Saka, Timber, Calafiori and Ødegaard all question marks after Wednesday's goalless draw with Sporting. On the other side, Nico O'Reilly (the guy who scored twice against Arsenal in the EFL Cup final, just to twist the knife) is confirmed fit after an injury scare. The one bright spot for Arsenal: Eze has scored or assisted in each of his last three appearances against City.

This feels like the big one, Arsenal have the chance to exorcise their demons and show the world what they are made of.

Monday, April 20

🦅 Crystal Palace vs ⚒️ West Ham — 12:00 PM — USA

^{Times are in Pacific Standard Time and channels are based in the U.S.}

Extra Slice

One Game to Rule Them All

Sunday's game at the Etihad isn't just a big match it’s gigantic! It's also a pretty rare one. It'll be only the ninth time in Premier League history that first and second have faced each other this late in the season, with both teams having seven or fewer games left and six points or fewer between them. The last time it happened was April 2014. Liverpool vs Chelsea. Steven Gerrard's infamous slip, a famous 2-0 Chelsea win, and Manchester City sneaking through to steal the title while Liverpool fell apart. So yeah, the history of these games is absolutely brutal for the team sitting on top.

The numbers are interesting. Second place has won four of the last five of these clashes — bad news for Arsenal. But winning the game doesn't guarantee winning the title either; teams that came from second to win have only gone on to lift the trophy half the time. The strangest stat of all though: teams coming in with momentum (three or more straight wins) have actually lost these games more often than not, winning just two of seven. City are the ones riding a wave right now. Arsenal are the ones limping in off a home loss to Bournemouth. If you're a Gunners fan, maybe that last bit is comforting.

But maybe none of this matters and Eze scores a worldie in the 90th. Either way I know I’ll be watching.