Good Morning,
What a week. Barcelona and Inter might’ve just played the greatest Champions League semi of all time (highlights here), while PSG made Arsenal (Englands last hope) their third Premier League victim of the knockout rounds. Oh and somehow, two of the worst teams in the league have stumbled into the Europa League final. What a time to be a fan.

– Gabe

Matches

🎯 MOTD: Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa

On paper, this one looks tight Villa are unbeaten in four straight against Bournemouth, but the Cherries have won two of the last three at home. Add in some late-game chaos (two of the last three meetings featured a 90th-minute equalizer), and we’re in for a potential thriller. Opta's supercomputer (my new best friend) favors Bournemouth ever so slightly (40.7% win probability), but Unai Emery's men have far more on the line, clinging to a narrow hope of cracking the top five with just a 15.5% chance.

What makes Bournemouth dangerous? Pressing….relentless, organized pressing. No team in the league has generated more shots (65) or goals (8) from turnovers in the oppositions territory this season. Their recent 2–1 stunner over Arsenal wasn’t a fluke either; Andoni Iraola’s side is unbeaten in five and hunting for back-to-back wins for the first time since January. Meanwhile, forward Evanilson is heating up, with 6 goal involvements in his last 8 matches, and Semenyo has been a spark plug at home.

Villa may not have anyone that hot at the moment, but they do have Ollie Watkins, who’s made a habit of tormenting Bournemouth (4 assists and 1 goal in four starts against them). Villa’s mission is simple: don’t blink. The Cherries have scored more second-half stoppage time goals than any other team this season (8), while Villa have conceded the second-most (9). Buckle up, this one might come down to the final kick.

📆 Fixtures:

• Fulham vs. Everton: The Toffees have just one win in their last ten matches and Fulham have been more miss than hit lately.
  

• Ipswich vs. Brentford : The Bees are looking to secure a fourth consecutive victory, a feat they haven't achieved since 1939. Already relegated Ipswich have lost 21 games so far, what one more?
  

• Southampton vs. Manchester City : Southampton may want to write this one off and move on to next weeks match as a potential place to get their much desired point.
  

• Wolverhampton vs. Brighton: This looks to be a good one! Wolves have only lost one out of seven, and Brighton can’t stop scoring, 9 goals in 5 ties.

Extra Slice

It’s not a joke… either Manchester United or Tottenham will actually qualify for next season’s Champions League, despite flirting with the bottom half for most of the year. Both clubs stumbled their way through the league but powered ahead in Europe, reaching the Europa League final. If one of them lifts that trophy and somehow finishes 17th in the Prem, they’ll officially become the worst domestic team ever to play in the Champions League.

While Millwall, Wigan, and Birmingham once earned European spots from the second tier, no English club has ever reached the Champions League while finishing outside the top six. So if Spurs or United sneak in through the back door, it’ll be a trivia-night stunner. Would they care about finishing just above the drop if they land in Europe’s elite? Probably not—but it would make them Champions League royalty with relegation form.

 Credit: Opta

📈 Table